Referendum overload: but on balance...

Referendum overload! But what a revealing process it has been.

The Prime Minister had been told it was most unlikely he would win an outright majority in the 2015 General Election, and under those conditions he exuberantly offered a commitment to a referendum on the EU. He never expected to have to deliver on that promise. And at that time there was pretty solid consensus that the Brits are pragmatic and averse to change. And few would have predicted that Boris Johnson, never a Eurosceptic, would decide to campaign hard for the UK to leave. What was the harm?

Those of us who live by research already knew that in politics, narrative trumps research findings. And those of us who live by explaining things already knew that in politics if you are explaining you are losing. This referendum related to a complex bureaucracy: it required both research and explanation, in quite heavy doses. The Remain campaign has relied on research and explanation quite a lot. That has pleased some of my academic friends, who have kindly shared all manner of charts, graphs, data sets and even well-informed presentations of EU law. It's a good way to get a PhD; but for referendums...?

The role of uncertainty strikes me as the most significant. It is arguably of epic proportions. The politicians are uncertain which narratives to stress: economy, immigration, war and peace, patriotism. We've been treated to some truly heroic false oppositions, the best being the question, 'Which flag should we fly: the Union Jack or the EU's?' Those who really do know the EU and its issues are profoundly uncertain how to speak in public. How do you defend an arrangement whose purpose is assert power against other blocs (including the USA, China and – most problematically – Commonwealth countries)? How do you commend an institution whose character is one of permanent compromise, negotiation and least-worst options? (In universities this is familiar territory for those in positions of responsibility, but less so for those, like me, whose vocation is research rather than administration.)

This was always going to be a battle between 'on balance, in' and 'no question about it: out!' That's a tough arena for Remain. Especially tough for the Left, where the EU both protects workers' rights and advances a neoliberal agenda. If Britain had a better track record of protecting workers' rights, this might be a very different referendum for the left.

For universities it was always going to be, "give up EU funding? Are you nuts?" (Although at least one of my university colleagues, one who holds a position of responsibility, has made a bold vote for out.) I used to run an Erasmus programme, where students receive financial support for studying at other European universities: it's a terrific initiative and I've met some wonderful students through it. I would be sad to see it go.

It turns out that many Brits are not pragmatic or risk-averse, although the bookies have consistently placed the odds on those who are. It might even come down to the weather: if it rains hardest in predominantly Remain areas, and voters opt to stay dry, this could alter the path of history for generations.

I care about those whose interests the EU is designed to oppose and I unconditionally affirm my EU immigrant colleagues. I am simultaneously proud to be British and appalled at our history. I speak more than one language (which apparently almost guarantees an 'in' vote) and am disgusted by the treatment of Greece.

On balance, in.

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© Nicholas Adams is Professor of Philosophical Theology at the University of Birmingham. http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/staff/profiles/tr/adams-nicholas.aspx

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Also from Ekklesia:

*What kind of European future? (Ekklesia, 13 June 2016) – http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/23160

* Assessing Christian contributions to the EU referendum debate (Ekklesia, 20 June 2016) – http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/23188

* Ten principles to guide voting in the EU referendum and beyond (Ekklesia, 21 June 2016) - http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/23194

* Briefing and commentary: http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/eureferendum